Remember this? It is the 2007 hurricane prediction. I want to know if it is ok now to come out of the cellar or are we going to get hit with a dozen or so storms before the end of the month?
I know a bit about weather and can prognosticate right up there with the local tv weather people. While I don’t have access to the latest computer models, I can read a weather map and figure out from the location of the jet stream and various highs and lows what will happen in the next day or two with a fair degree of accuracy. However, I’ve always been amazed at those–primarily media people–who rush to press with these long-range predictions (as well as those who make and believe them). To me, the hype does little but promote either panic or complacency, while increasing ratings and inflating egos. In truth, to make a prediction on the weather for more than a few days is little more that an educated guess and to make one for a season or, in the case of the hurricane experts, a full 6 or 7 months is impossible.
Unfortunately the public, in general, and the media, in particular, move on to other things once the initial response to these predictions passes and forget them entirely. (I say “unfortunately” because, since they forget, they give the next prediction, especially if it is dire, too much credence.) It will do us well to remember the accuracy of the April 2007 hurricane forcast when April 2008’s comes out.
